Reliability assessment of an isolated hybrid microgrid using Markov modeling and Monte Carlo simulation
Keywords:Photovoltaic, Wind Turbine Generator, Micro-Gas Turbine, Monte Carlo Simulation, Markov Modeling..
AbstractAdequacy assessment of standalone systems with integrated renewable generation sources is growing in importance. In this work, the focus is on reliability assessment of an isolated microgrid operating on renewable energy generated by wind turbines (WTs) and photovoltaic (PV) panels. Including batteries for storage is crucial for the system’s feasibility. In many systems, additional micro gas turbines (MGTs) serve as conventional backup. Here, Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS) method was used to carry out simulations on the system that was also modeled using Markov matrices. Input data, such as wind speed, solar irradiance, and ambient air temperature was required to simulate the power outputs of the generators. Such historical data was fitted into appropriate distributions to extract corresponding parameters when simulating essential key factors to produce the renewable power generation models. The adequacy model of the MGTs was obtained by employing the two-state reliability model, which was also superimposed with the generation models of WTs, PV panels and batteries. The IEEE Roy Billinton test system (RBTS) was used for demand modelling. Common reliability indices were computed and the system availability margins were evaluated.
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